How Rangers can become Scottish Premiership title favourites

Rangers recent resurgence in the Scottish Premiership is no longer being fuelled by emotion alone.

The data is starting to align with what Danny Röhl and his players have been insisting for weeks: focus on the next game, build momentum, and let the table take care of itself.

According to analytics platform Football Meets Data, Rangers four-game winning streak - extended to six victories from their last seven league matches - has significantly altered the statistical landscape of the title race.

Right now, the model still has Celtic as marginal favourites at 38%, with current league leaders Hearts close behind on 36%. Rangers, however, are now firmly in touch at 25%.

On the surface, Rangers remain third in the projections. But Football Meets Data’s simulator shows just how quickly that picture can flip - and why Röhl’s insistence on discipline, control and taking things a game at a time matters so much.

When the model runs a hypothetical scenario of Rangers beating Hearts 1–0 on 15 February and Celtic 1–0 on 1 March, the probabilities swing dramatically.

Rangers jump to 44% favourites for the title, while Hearts drop to 28% and Celtic to 26%. Two narrow wins. Two direct rivals beaten. One transformed title race.

That statistical reality mirrors exactly how Röhl has framed Rangers’ recent run.

“Next three points, a clean sheet – this is the most important thing,” the Rangers head coach said after the recent win over Aberdeen at Ibrox.

“I will repeat this again and again – we have to be hungry, we have to be ambitious.

“But I will not allow that we dream of something more. It’s about the next game.”

The numbers reward that mentality. Rangers don’t need to dominate every match or rack up heavy scorelines. They need to control key moments - something Röhl believes his side is learning to do.

“In the second half we controlled the game like a top team in the league,” he said after the 2-0 win over the Dons.

“That was my feeling. If we do our homework like we did in the last couple of weeks, we are on a fantastic way.”

Players have echoed that message repeatedly. Midfielder Nicolas Raskin, who scored again in the Aberdeen win, stressed that Rangers are deliberately keeping their focus narrow.

“It’s already so hard to win games, so we try not to look too much ahead,” Raskin said.

“We’re just taking game after game, trying to work hard, do the basics right, and then show some quality.”

That approach is exactly what the Football Meets Data projections reward. The model doesn’t assume perfection - it assumes incremental gains in high-impact fixtures.

Two 1–0 wins are enough to swing Rangers from outsiders to favourites because they directly remove points from rivals rather than simply adding to Rangers own total.

Connor Barron, another key figure in this run, has also framed Rangers rise in collective terms rather than individual brilliance.

“I think we’re starting to look like a real team now,” Barron said recently.

“It’s important we just continue winning and that’s our full focus.”

The midfielder, however, looks set to miss out of Sunday's return fixture against Aberdeen at Pittodrie due to injury.

Even alternative scenarios tested by Football Meets Data - including Rangers dropping points against Hearts but taking a win and a draw from Celtic - still leave Röhl’s side firmly in the hunt.

That underlines how volatile the race has become and how much pressure now sits elsewhere.

Röhl, though, remains unmoved by projections or percentages.

“I’m proud, I’m happy to see this,” he said.

“But it’s about the next. It’s a long journey.”

The data agrees, but it also delivers a clear message. If Rangers keep doing exactly what their manager and players keep saying, staying hungry, staying grounded, and winning the right games, the numbers suggest something remarkable could follow.

But for now, as the gaffer says – it is one game at a time.